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Independent research on energy, the environment, macro conditions, and financial markets. Browse all reports or filter by topic below.
All reports · 26 reports
Lessons from Black Monday
How mechanical selling can amplify a decline, why liquidity matters, and why the first rebound does not always mark the end of market stress.
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NQ × Wave 5 Watch × ABC RecoveryUpdated five-wave roadmap
We favor a fifth leg toward 26,424, with MA365 near 26,352 a separate support test. A new high above the November 4 intraday peak invalidates the immediate count.
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NQ × Five-Wave Structure × Wave 3 ExtensionFive-wave technical roadmap
Our preferred measured-leg scenario leaves roughly 700 points or more of downside. Waves 4 and 5 remain projections, with a custom fourth-wave closing ceiling near 28,970.
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NQ × Failed Breakout × Earnings RiskTechnical and earnings outlook
Alphabet's disappointing earnings reaction reinforces our bearish bias. We expect the Intel and Amazon earnings window to test sentiment, while a constructive surprise could invalidate the call.
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NQ × Rebound Watch × Closing ConfirmationShort technical update
The daily candle leaves room for a rebound or stabilization. We stay bearish while daily closes remain below the October 21 high.
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NQ × Support Failure × AI RepricingTechnical and news analysis
A support failure and pressure on AI leadership favor downside. After a large down session, we allow for a pause or limited bounce before a slower decline.
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NQ × Reclaimed Resistance × Thesis ReassessmentRevisiting our bearish view
Holding 29,800 challenges the October 14 call. A failed recovery and a sustained break below 29,200–29,000 would reopen risk toward 27,200 and potentially below.
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NQ × Support Breakdown × Bearish StructureTechnical follow-up
Early bearish structure points toward 28,950–29,300. We expect potential buying at the old consolidation base, but favor a rebound that fails unless a new base breaks higher and holds.
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NQ × Failed Breakout × Semiconductor LeadershipTechnical outlook
Two sessions without breakout confirmation favor a correction toward the September 23 low. We watch 30,400 and semiconductor stabilization for a possible recovery.
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AI × Capital Cycles × ValuationComplete research edition · 30 exhibits
A complete, illustrated study of AI revenue, capital spending, supply chains, model economics, chips, memory, valuation, employment, and investment scenarios.
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NQ × YM × Spread ReversalTactical bearish outlook
Three historical pullbacks, spread-reversion and confirmed NQ-short scenarios, and a conditional 5%–7% correction range after the post-hike rally.
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The indexes remain elevated, but Nasdaq new-high breadth, semiconductor and bank leadership, credit spreads, and long-term participation are sending a less confident message.
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NQ × Record-High Context × Trend CheckResearch follow-up
Why we see the selloff after the Nasdaq's record closes as a potential normal pullback, how the July 30 NQ forecast relates, and what would invalidate our view.
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El Niño × Crops × FuturesNew research
Why a very strong 2026–2027 El Niño creates the largest upside asymmetry in sugar, vegetable oils, and corn—and how to trade the regional crop calendar without treating every commodity alike.
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Fed Cycles × S&P 500 × Global CapitalCycle study
What six tightening cycles, three crisis-era cutting cycles, and the U.S.–China performance gap reveal about rates, capital flows, and long-term equity direction.
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Energy × Inflation × MarketsNew research
How oil, diesel, natural gas, and electricity are moving through consumer prices, Federal Reserve policy, bond yields, equity valuations, and sector leadership.
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QQQ × Fed Hike × Trend Re-AccelerationPost-hike outlook
Why the completed Fed hike, Nasdaq relative strength, and technology leadership favor a new advance—with 720–723 as the first pivot and a precise post-September 21 risk rule.
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Climate × Energy × MarketsNew research
How winter heating demand, natural-gas inventories, hydropower shortfalls, and energy inflation could reshape rates, equities, and commodity markets through early 2027.
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NVDA × Technical Reversal × MacroMarket outlook
Why an inverted-hammer-style rejection at prior resistance, sticky inflation, resilient employment, and stretched AI expectations favor a tactical pullback.
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INTC × Double Bottom × Semiconductor CycleMarket outlook
Why two defenses of the mid-$85 area, 25% revenue growth, AI-compute demand, improving execution, and 18A manufacturing momentum support a bullish breakout.
Read full reportCrude Oil × Inflation × Fed PolicyMarket outlook
Why choppy Hormuz flows, depleted product inventories, and a global supply deficit point to a staged crude rally from next week—and why $104 should become resistance before a pullback.
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YM × Trend Continuation × Macro PressureResearch follow-up
Why the low-volume rebound does not end the decline—and how YM can roll over immediately or after a time correction into the week of August 31, with 52,100 still in view.
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Fed Policy × Inflation × RatesPolicy outlook
Why persistent inflation, an energy-driven price shock, resilient private demand, and a hawkish split inside the FOMC point to a 25-basis-point increase at the September meeting.
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Bitcoin × Technical Strategy × LiquidityMarket outlook
Why two months of base-building, repeated defense of the August low, and inferred large-buyer absorption point to $77,500 first— and $81,000 if the initial breakout holds.
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YM1 × Reversal Pattern × RatesMarket outlook
Why the August 5 upper-wick rejection and August 6 bearish expansion candle—reinforced by rising oil, bond yields, and broad constituent weakness—point to a one-month pullback.
Read full reportNQ × Reversal Structure × AI EarningsMarket outlook
Why a June 11-style EMA reclaim, broad semiconductor leadership, cooler core inflation, and earnings-backed AI demand point to a staged recovery toward 30,000.
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