Our view
A rebound is possible. Our bearish bias remains.
We interpret the October 26 daily candle as a reason to allow for an upward correction. Selling may be easing, and NQ could be trying to establish a short-term floor. That possibility deserves attention, even while our broader directional preference remains bearish.
A market can stop falling temporarily before it establishes a durable uptrend. We therefore distinguish a recovery attempt from a confirmed reversal. A bounce would be compatible with our view unless it repairs the structure at the resistance level we are watching.
While daily closes remain below that high, we treat an advance as a rebound within the bearish framework. An intraday move above it that fades before the close would not satisfy our confirmation rule.
The closing test
Watch whether buyers can retain the recovery.
If NQ rises toward the October 21 high but stalls or closes beneath it, resistance remains unresolved. A subsequent loss of short-term support would strengthen the case that the rebound has ended and selling is resuming.
A daily close above the October 21 high would challenge our bearish view and trigger a reassessment. Follow-through above the level, or a successful retest, would add confidence that the recovery is more durable. We would not dismiss that evidence simply because our initial preference was bearish.
Decision framework
| Observation | Our reading |
|---|---|
| Rebound or sideways stabilization below the October 21 high | A possible short-term floor; the bearish bias remains. |
| Intraday breakout that closes back below the high | The reversal test has not been met. |
| Daily close above the high, followed by a hold or successful retest | Evidence of repair; reassess the bearish thesis. |
| Rebound fails and price loses support again | Renewed downside becomes more plausible. |
Our stance is unchanged: allow for a rebound and acknowledge that stabilization may be developing, but remain bearish while the October 21 high caps daily closes. We will revise the view if price meets the recovery test.
Methodology
This note uses the analyst's October 26 daily-chart interpretation. The October 21 high is referenced without assigning an unverified exact price; compare the same NQ contract and session convention. Related analysis: October 22: NQ Loses 29,277. These are conditional technical judgments, not measured probabilities. Futures involve leverage and substantial risk.